Nate Silver at Five Thirty Eight
In Michigan, however, the term is appropriate. Rick Santorum, who once trailed Mitt Romney badly in the state, then surged to a clear lead there, then saw Mr. Romney regain his footing and pull back ahead, appears to have some late momentum in the race — perhaps just enough to win, and perhaps not.
In fact, after adding in a poll from Public Policy Polling that showed Mr. Santorum ahead by five points in interviews conducted on Monday night, our forecast model of the state briefly showed a tie, with Mr. Romney and Mr. Santorum each at 37.6 percent of the vote.
Let’s not forget the political games being played between Mr. Santorum and the Democrats. It’s a must win state for Romney simply by virtue of his deep roots there. Michigan is also state where a registered voter can vote on any ticket. In other words, Democrats can influence the race by crossing over to vote for Santorum in order to prevent Romney a big win.
Michigan Democratic strategist Joe DiSano has taken it upon himself to become a leading mischief maker.
DiSano says he targeted nearly 50,000 Democratic voters in Michigan through email and a robo call to their homes, asking them to go to the polls Tuesday to vote for Rick Santorum in attempt to hurt Romney.
“Democrats can get in there and cause havoc for Romney all the way to the Republican convention,” DiSano told CNN.
“If we can help set that fire in Michigan, we have a responsibility to do so,” he said.
What’s more disgusting is that Santorum is most likely a willing accomplice in the mischief. This is the fear of an open primary system, and many who advocate this process in the futile hope that it will some how “moderate” the election process should take heed. It actually weakens the election process and leaves open the possibility of a false-positive, if you will.